By Sota Nakazaki
As the 2026 FIFA World Cup approaches, the men’s international soccer landscape is heating up. While the usual powerhouses like Spain, Argentina, and France remain top of the FIFA World Rankings, several underdog teams are making waves, and October 2025 has delivered some unforgettable matches.
FIFA Men’s World Rankings Overview
- #1 Spain — continuing their dominance with strong results in UEFA qualifiers.
- #2 Argentina — consistently high-ranking, driven by their attacking firepower.
- #3 France — defending champions of many international tournaments.
- #16 United States — making strides toward 2026 World Cup preparations.
- Notable movers: Smaller nations like The Gambia and Guatemala are climbing, showcasing the increasing competitiveness among “underdog” nations.
- Note: Rankings are calculated using FIFA’s Elo-type system, which considers match results, opponent strength, and match importance (friendlies carry less weight than qualifiers)
Teams to Watch: Rising Underdogs
1. The Gambia
- Recently jumped 8 places in the FIFA rankings.
- Shows progress through strong performances despite limited historical records.
2. Guatemala
- Achieved one of their best-ever ranking positions (~95th globally).
- Their improvement comes from wins in crucial regional matches.
- Key angle: Emerging as a competitive Central American side in CONCACAF.
3. Australia
- Riding a streak of 7 consecutive victories.
- Projected around 24th globally, making them a “dark horse” in upcoming tournaments.
Key angle: From underdog to potential surprise contender in the lead-up to 2026.
Notable Matches and Results — October 2025
Here’s a detailed list of international men’s matches (World Cup qualifiers and notable friendlies) from October 2025:
| Date | Match | Result | Context/Significance |
| Oct 10 | Kazakhstan vs Liechtenstein | 4‑0 | Kazakhstan dominates UEFA Group J qualifier. |
| Oct 10 | Faroe Islands vs Czech Republic | 2‑1 | Major upset; Faroe Islands keeps qualification hopes alive. |
| Oct 11 | Germany vs Luxembourg | 4‑0 | Germany dominates Group A qualifier. |
| Oct 11 | Northern Ireland vs Slovakia | 2‑0 | Useful home win for Northern Ireland. |
| Oct 10 | Sweden vs Switzerland | 0‑2 | Switzerland wins away in UEFA Group B. |
| Oct 14 | Spain vs Bulgaria | 4‑0 | Spain stays perfect in UEFA Group E qualifiers. |
| Oct 14 | Portugal vs Hungary | 2‑2 | Portugal draws late; Hungary grabs a shocking point. |
| Oct 14 | Qatar vs UAE | 2‑1 | Qatar secures qualification for 2026 World Cup (AFC). |
| Oct 14 | Saudi Arabia vs Iraq | 0‑0 | Draw sufficient for Saudi Arabia to qualify. |
| Oct 14 | Japan vs Brazil | 3‑2 | Historic comeback win in friendly; Japan overcomes a 0‑2 deficit. |
| Oct 14 | England vs Latvia | 5‑0 | England secures 2026 World Cup qualification. |
| Oct 14 | France vs Iceland | 2‑2 | Iceland shows resilience, drawing against France. |
| Oct 14 | Germany vs Slovakia | 0‑2 | Major upset in World Cup qualifying. |
Implications for 2026
- Seeding and perception: Rising underdog teams could earn favorable draws in tournaments and shift how opponents approach them psychologically.
- Momentum vs. legacy: While historical powerhouses dominate, these emerging teams are reshaping expectations.
- David vs. Goliath narratives: Matches like Japan vs Brazil or Faroe Islands vs Czech Republic capture the imagination of fans and highlight the unpredictable nature of soccer.
- Japan’s first historic win against Brazil in Japan’s history.
- Ranking strategy: Teams must balance friendlies, qualifiers, and regional tournaments to maximize ranking points and build confidence.
Key Takeaways
- Smaller nations are increasingly competitive, not just in qualifiers but in high-profile friendlies.
- Upsets and surprising performances are shaping the global soccer narrative.
- FIFA rankings remain an important but imperfect indicator of team strength.
- October 2025 has already shown that underdogs and dark horses can dominate headlines, a trend likely to continue through World Cup 2026.
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